Insight: Poll shows healthy young adults may keep Obamacare afloat
September 9, 2013
By Sharon
Begley
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Korey Kormick, 29, has not had health insurance for at
least a decade. His job, as a contract employee directing chess tournaments and
coaching kids in the fundamentals of the game, doesn't offer it, and he hasn't
been able to afford coverage on the individual market.
Feeling medically "invincible" - as the conventional wisdom holds
19-to-34-year-olds do - never had much to do with it. That is especially after
he fell out the back of a pickup truck packed with chess equipment, breaking his
arm in 13 places, on a recent trip through Alabama to a chess tournament.
"I'm looking forward to getting insurance because it hasn't been an option up
until now," Kormick said of the new plans for 2014 coverage to be offered under
President Barack Obama's healthcare reform. "I'm just hoping the cost is
reasonable."
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,053 uninsured Americans, and detailed
interviews with 51 of the respondents, shows that Kormick is not an outlier:
Obamacare may attract enough of the young healthy adults it needs to buy
insurance to offset the costs of covering sicker Americans and keep the system
afloat financially.
While four in 10 of the uninsured of all ages support the 2010 law, according
to the poll, the result indicated half of those 18 through 34 do so. Among the
younger respondents, a little more than one-third have attempted to buy health
insurance in the past, suggesting pent-up demand for the insurance plans to be
sold through online exchanges in each state beginning October 1.
One-third of young adults in the poll said they are "very" or "somewhat"
likely to buy insurance through their state's exchange.
If half of that proportion of the nation's young and healthy follow through,
the White House would easily meet its goal of getting 2.7 million young adults -
out of about 16 million uninsured 19-to-29-year-olds - to buy Obamacare
insurance for 2014.
The results are part of Reuters' ongoing online poll. Among all uninsured,
the credibility interval, a measure of the poll's accuracy, was plus or minus
3.4 percentage points.
"Contrary to commonly held beliefs, young adults do want affordable health
coverage," said Dr David Blumenthal, president of the Commonwealth Fund, a
nonprofit that studies healthcare systems.
The young demographic is so pivotal to the success of Obamacare that one of
the law's fiercest opponents, the libertarian group FreedomWorks, is running a
campaign on social and traditional media aimed at persuading Americans in their
20s not to buy insurance on the exchanges.
Just a few months ago, many commentators thought that would be easy.
Uninsured "young invincibles," went the thinking, would see little need to buy
health coverage and would figure they had better uses for a few hundred dollars
every month than paying insurance premiums.
CARROTS AND STICKS
Interviews with several dozen young adults suggest the instances where
Obamacare will appeal to this group, tied to personal experience and the role of
subsidies and penalties.
Lacking access to a doctor, veterinary technician April Garcia, 30, tries to
diagnose herself based on what she knows about dogs and cats when she feels ill.
When she had "horrible abdominal pains" recently, she ruled out appendicitis and
a blocked colon, either of which could be fatal.
Because Garcia does not have insurance through her job at an animal hospital
in Rockville, Maryland, she treated herself with pro-biotics for a more routine
gastrointestinal upset, but was in pain for four days. She is following news
about Maryland's exchange and hopes to get coverage.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll found, as other surveys have, that a majority of the
young uninsured are unaware of how the new law will affect them. But interviews
with the respondents showed that many who had not heard of the exchanges or were
disinclined to enroll did an about-face when presented with basic information
about the new coverage.
In particular, learning that they would be fined for being uninsured in 2014
(1 percent of income, with a minimum of $95) is affecting young adults'
thinking. At the same time, a majority are expected to qualify for government
subsidies to purchase coverage based on income.
Barry Mall, 34, of Mamaroneck, New York, became uninsured when he lost a
warehouse job two years ago. He has not gone to a doctor or dentist since,
despite toothaches and occasional minor illnesses, which he waited out or
treated with whatever he could buy without a prescription.
"The idea of paying a penalty and getting nothing for it seems worse than
buying it," he said.
That fits with what researchers have found about consumer behavior. "We know
from behavioral economics that people respond more to penalties than subsidies,"
said economist David Dranove of Northwestern University's Kellogg School of
Management. "This kind of quirk is most apparent in situations that people
aren't used to," which describes buying health insurance after being
uninsured.
Young Invincibles, a four-year-old nonprofit that is working to enroll
18-to-34-year olds in Obamacare policies, is counting on the fear of another
penalty to spur enrollment. "In talking to young men we're emphasizing that if
something goes terribly wrong (medically) they could bankrupt themselves and
their family," said Rory O'Sullivan, the group's director of policy and
research. "We're optimistic we'll see significant uptake by this group" in
Obamacare insurance.
Young adults who are already staring into a financial abyss for medical
reasons may be especially receptive to this pitch. Alex Manley, 25, of
Washington, D.C., was injured in a car accident that nearly destroyed his eye
nine years ago. "I need to get surgery soon," he said. "A stitch is coming loose
so it's an open wound and it can get infected. I can't see well." The eye
surgery, he believes, would cost $15,000 to $20,000.
HOLDOUTS
To be sure, skepticism and even antipathy remains high in a country so
politically divided over the law that some congressional Republicans have
threatened a government shutdown rather than allowing Obamacare reforms to
proceed.
Joanna Nguyen, 30, of Upper Darby, Pennsylvania, is the only one in her
family without insurance: her children are insured through the government's
Children's Health Insurance Program, and her husband has coverage through his
job as a supervisor at a loan company. They can't afford the $600 per month to
cover her, too, and Nguyen opposes the healthcare law's requirement that
Americans obtain insurance.
"It's still not going to be affordable and I don't think we should be forced
into purchasing healthcare," she said. She doesn't intend to buy coverage on
Pennsylvania's exchange.
Ira Barth, 24, of Dover, New Jersey, a classical music singer and special
needs caretaker, last had insurance in June 2012. He isn't sure if he will buy
insurance on New Jersey's exchange: "I want to see how affordable it is. If it's
going to be more expensive than paying for one or two doctor visits a year, I
don't know if I'll sign on for it."
When young adults who initially told Reuters they are unlikely to buy
insurance learn for the first time about government subsidies for doing so, many
re-thought their position.
People will be eligible for subsidies to defray the cost of premiums if their
income is less than four times the official poverty level, or $45,960 for an
individual and $94,200 for a family of four. A subsidy calculator from the
Kaiser Family Foundation is available at: here
Tanya McIntyre, 29, a mother of two in Asheville, North Carolina, and her
truck-driver husband just got approved for food stamps; they can't afford a car,
much less health insurance. McIntyre said she does "not agree with" the
healthcare reform law's requirement that people buy insurance. "We can barely
afford to survive. Being forced to have insurance, I do not agree with that.
They're trying to force it on people who it's their last nickel and dime."
A family like hers will likely qualify for $8,400 in subsidies toward a
$9,900 annual premium, and that might be enough to overcome her ideological
objections to Obamacare. They will buy coverage on North Carolina's exchange,
McIntyre said, "if we can find one cheap enough."
(Reporting by Sharon Begley, Lewis Krauskopf, Julie Steenhuysen and Yasmeen
Abutaleb; Editing by Michele Gershberg and Leslie Gevirtz)